Welcome to the Rob Clegg blog. The coronavirus (also known as COVID-19) has now been documented in more than 100 countries and territories. As the coronavirus outbreak continues to wreak havoc on markets and industries around the world, businesses are now confronting significant and unique challenges.
China’s economy is much more deeply intertwined with the world’s economy—a 17% share of global GDP with trade accounting for 34% of domestic GDP—than it was during the 2003 SARS outbreak. More immediately though, I’m concerned about the economic health of countries in Asia—Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines and Vietnam, among them—that are closely tied to China through trade and tourism.
I’ll add Japan, the world’s third largest economy, to this list. Japan’s fragile economy is unlikely to be helped by the reduced supply of critical manufacturing parts from China. If the coronavirus outbreak widens and persists, I reckon Japan could slide into a recession and be forced to call off the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
Another country that is particularly vulnerable is Germany. Should the coronavirus outbreak deteriorate further, I foresee a potentially near-zero growth situation in 2020, with falling vehicle sales causing more heartburn for the German automotive industry. Check out Robert Clegg‘s latest business post and analysis of the global pandemic on his website here.
As for the world’s largest economy, the U.S. is likely to see a significant drop in retail imports. Given the circumstances, I believe that trade hostilities will ease up rather than intensify. Africa, a region with deep ties to China, appears to have escaped the brunt of the outbreak. However, its incidence here could be problematic from multiple perspectives. It could overwhelm the weak healthcare infrastructure in the region, depress both commodity prices and export revenues due to the closure of Chinese ports, and diminish overall growth prospects.
As the effects of the coronavirus outbreak continue to spool out, let’s be warned, be prepared and, most importantly, be hopeful.
About Rob Clegg
Rob Clegg is a consultant, entrepreneur, and business founder. He has experience in raising funding, building business specializing in Tech. Read more about Rob Clegg on his wikipedia page here. Alternatively, you can also read top technology news on the Rob Clegg Medium page here. Watch the Rob Clegg video below